Lubricants Market Morning Report20260629

Global Market Updates

Progress continues on the US-Iran agreement, lifting expectations of Iranian crude returning to global markets

As US-Iran relations ease, Iranian oil is set to re-enter international trade; shipping through the Strait of Hormuz keeps recovering, driving a rapid rebound in Middle Eastern supply.

Mounting OPEC+ output hike expectations, with the July meeting as a critical turning point

Markets anticipate OPEC+ may ease production cuts at the July gathering. Combined with a stronger US Dollar Index, upside room for oil prices remains limited.

EIA Forecast: Brent crude to average $58 per barrel in 2026; current price above the projected mean

The EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook forecasts supply recovery will keep weighing on prices. Brent trading near $75 per barrel faces persistent downward pressure.

Global lubricant demand grows steadily in 2026, with the Asia-Pacific region accounting for 49.9% of the total

India has overtaken Japan as the fastest-growing market in Asia-Pacific; the global market is projected to reach $174.4 billion by 2029.

Kunlun Lubricants achieves first dual international OEM marine lubricant certification, reshaping industry competition

Its marine cylinder oil 5040P has passed dual CAT II certifications from a global leading marine engine manufacturer, making it the first domestic firm to obtain this qualification.

Data center liquid cooling era accelerates, coolants emerging as a new lubricant industry track

AI large models fuel explosive computing power demand and rising power density per cabinet, making liquid cooling standard for data centers; lubricant companies are rushing to deploy in this space.

Lubricant Industry News

Nearly 40 brands announce collective price hikes amid one of the industry’s most challenging periods

Crude oil cost pressures have passed through to lubricants, with Shell, ExxonMobil, Castrol and domestic players raising factory prices by 5%–15%.

NVIDIA Rubin liquid cooling signals new opportunities: a fresh track opens for lubricant firms

Data center liquid cooling gains traction amid climbing power density in GPU clusters; lubricant businesses are expanding into energy storage coolants and liquid cooling media.

South Korean lubricant cartel case: price collusion deep within manufacturing supply chains

South Korea’s Fair Trade Commission has fined multiple lubricant companies, reflecting stricter antitrust oversight and improved pricing transparency across the sector.

South American Market

Brazil: The world’s sixth-largest lubricant market with annual consumption of roughly 1.23 million tons

Brazil accounts for over half of finished lubricant demand in South America, with rising vehicle ownership driving market expansion.

Prinx Chengshan wraps up its first Latin America promotion conference, accelerating Chinese tire brand globalization

Chinese tire firms shift focus from product export to brand building; Latin America serves as a key testbed for global operational capabilities.

African Market

Nigeria: Annual illegal lubricant imports exceed 4 million liters, prompting strengthened government regulation

Authorities ramp up crackdowns on smuggled oil products to standardize market order and protect legitimate supply channels.

South Africa: Major regional lubricant distribution hub with annual demand of about 360,000 tons

Leveraging prime port infrastructure to serve all of Southern Africa, it functions as the continent’s core lubricant transit and distribution center.

Russian Market

Lukoil Lubricants holds over 40% domestic market share with annual sales surpassing 1.2 million tons

As Russia’s largest integrated lubricant producer, Lukoil maintains a full product portfolio covering automotive and industrial applications.

Russia extends the ban on gasoline exports to the end of February 2026

Restrictions on diesel and marine fuel oil exports have been extended concurrently to prioritize domestic energy supply.

South Asian Market

India: The world’s fifth-largest lubricant market with 3.7% average annual growth

Outpacing Japan as Asia-Pacific’s fastest-growing market; industrial applications make up 51% of lubricant demand, led by power and chemical sectors.

Lubrizol partners with HD Hyundai Oilbank, intensifying Asia-Pacific lubricant competition

Lubrizol has signed a cooperation MOU with HD Hyundai Oilbank, aligning the global additive giant with a major South Korean refiner for deep collaboration.

Marine Fuel in Malaysia

Global marine fuel market size to reach RMB 1.4353 trillion in 2026

With a compound annual growth rate of 7.43%, the IMO net-zero emission framework drives rapid demand growth for eco-friendly marine lubricants.

Malaysia International Marine Expo (MIMEX) 2026 to be held in November (Kuala Lumpur)

Spanning 16,000 sq.m., the expo hosts 285 exhibitors and draws over 15,000 professional attendees.

Lubricant Technical Basics

Category B · Technical: Can gear oil and hydraulic oil be interchanged? What are the key performance differences?

Gear oils focus on extreme-pressure anti-wear (EP additives) and protection under gear meshing loads, typically formulated with higher viscosity grades. Hydraulic oils prioritize anti-wear performance, anti-foam properties and cleanliness across a wider viscosity range.

The two feature distinct additive systems. Misuse can lead to cavitation and accelerated pump wear in hydraulic systems, or insufficient viscosity causing gear damage. Lubricant selection must comply with equipment manufacturer specifications.

Category A · Popular Science: Does dark engine oil always mean it has degraded?

Darkening in service is normal and does not automatically indicate deterioration. Discoloration mainly stems from dispersants trapping combustion byproducts and oxides (e.g., carbon black), mild base oil oxidation, or additive depletion. Some new synthetic oils naturally appear pale yellow or amber.

Assess degradation holistically by checking viscosity shift, odor, water content and sludge buildup; conduct lab testing of flash point, acid number and other key parameters when needed.