Lubricants Market Morning Report 20260615

Global Market Bulletin

Global Oil Market

OPEC revises down 2026 demand growth forecast to 970,000 barrels per day for two consecutive months

In its monthly report, OPEC cut its projection for global oil demand growth in 2026 from 1.17 million barrels per day to 970,000 barrels per day. Iran’s output has registered the most drastic decline, and the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz is reshaping the global energy supply and demand landscape.

World Bank forecasts average Brent crude price at $94 per barrel in 2026

A report released by the World Bank on June 11 predicts Brent crude will average $94 per barrel in 2026, representing a 36% year-on-year increase from 2025. Geopolitical risk premiums and tight supply serve as the major price-supporting factors.

U.S.-Iran parallel confrontation and negotiations: Partial shipping resumes in the Strait of Hormuz

Indirect talks between the U.S. and Iran were suspended and subsequently restarted. The two sides are close to striking a limited agreement that includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Market fears over supply disruptions have eased, yet repairs to energy infrastructure will take several months.

U.S. crude oil exports hit an all-time high of 6.4 million barrels per day

During the May Iran conflict, WTI crude traded at a premium to Brent for a period. U.S. crude exports set a record peak. Geopolitical volatility was offset by loose fundamental supply conditions, and OPEC+ has rolled out planned production hikes.

Domestic refined oil prices slashed sharply on June 4; No.92 gasoline drops to RMB 8.3 per liter

Gasoline prices were cut by RMB 525 per ton and diesel by RMB 505 per ton, putting an end to the previous consecutive price rally. No.95 gasoline has fallen back to below RMB 8 per liter in multiple regions. The next pricing adjustment window opens at 24:00 on June 18.

Industry News

2026 Shanghai International Lubricants Exhibition Concludes Successfully: 300 Exhibitors and 25,000 Visitors

The 25th Shanghai International Lubricants & Application Technology Exhibition was held from June 9 to 11, covering a total exhibition area of 25,000 square meters with 300 participating exhibitors, including well-known brands such as Compton, Idemitsu and Longpan.

2026 Lubricant Industry Insight: The OEM Model Undergoes Hidden Restructuring

Accelerated penetration of new energy vehicles imposes brand-new requirements on lubricant formulations for hybrid models. Traditional OEM models face mounting pressure for technical upgrading, and the industry has entered a stock competition phase.

Idemitsu officially announces its first batch of authorized distributors for industrial lubricants in 2026

Idemitsu Lubricants unveiled eight authorized distributors for its industrial lubricant product line and released field test data of APOLLOIL AP600W-20 in southern Xinjiang, accelerating its localized layout in China.

South American Market

The 2026 Directory of South American Lubricant Importers has been released, covering over 20 countries including Brazil, Argentina and Colombia. Brazil remains the largest importer, with steady growth in demand for machinery lubricants used in mining and agriculture.

African Market

The 2026 Directory of Lubricant Importers for South Africa and broader Africa has been updated. Egypt (annual demand of 450,000 tons) and South Africa (360,000 tons) account for over 75% of Africa’s total market share, while pricing remains the core competitive factor.

Russia

A temporary jet fuel export ban took effect in Russia on June 1 and will remain in place until late November to secure domestic fuel supplies. Meanwhile, Russia has approved a plan to expand its port crude oil export capacity by 32 million tons. Domestic fuel supply has tightened following drone attacks on local refineries.

South Asian Market

India ranks as the world’s fifth-largest lubricant market, with industrial consumption accounting for 51% of total demand, sustained by continuous government investment in infrastructure and power generation. Indonesia is the fourth-largest lubricant market globally; its lubricant demand is projected to rise from 1.19 billion liters to 1.5 billion liters by 2033.

Marine Fuel in Malaysia

Malaysia accounts for approximately 48.6% of China’s bonded marine fuel imports, ranking first among all supply nations. At Zhoushan bonded fuel terminals, high-sulfur 380CST marine fuel is quoted at $660–670 per metric ton, and low-sulfur grade at $775–785 per metric ton. Upstream cost pressures have driven a mild uptick in marine fuel prices.

Basic Knowledge

Q&A: Does darkening lubricant oil always indicate deterioration?

A darker oil color does not necessarily mean the lubricant has gone bad. After new oil is put into service, detergent-dispersant additives suspend carbon deposits and oxides generated by combustion, which darkens the oil and signals normal additive performance.

However, if the oil suddenly turns pitch-black accompanied by pungent burnt odor, sludge buildup or obvious viscosity fluctuation, it may suffer overheating oxidation or severe contamination, requiring immediate oil change and root cause inspection.

Technical Brief: API SQ / SP Specifications – Latest Performance Requirements for Gasoline Engine Oils

API SQ, the newest gasoline engine oil standard launched in 2026, further enhances protection against timing chain wear, Low-Speed Pre-Ignition (LSPI) and sludge control on the basis of API SP.

The SQ standard enforces stricter bench testing and is compatible with vehicles equipped with Gasoline Particulate Filters (GPF). It imposes tighter limits on phosphorus content to safeguard exhaust aftertreatment systems, with 0W-20 and 5W-30 as the recommended primary viscosity grades.

Featured Technology

Organic Molybdenum Fullerene Lubricant: Friction Coefficient Reduced Below 0.001

The R&D team of Huayi Hongmeng chemically modified fullerenes with molybdenum nitride to form a eutectic rolling lubricating film on metal surfaces. Four-ball friction testing recorded a minimum friction coefficient of 0.001 and a wear scar diameter of 0.31 mm. The product complies with API SQ and ACEA C3 specifications.

2026 Industrial Lubrication Technical Upgrade: Green & Intelligent Development as Core Trends

Iterative base oil refining processes and eco-friendly formula innovation stand out as core industry trends. Enterprises such as Runzhibo have realized digital service response with a delay of less than 200 milliseconds and an over-delivery rate below 0.01%. The industrial lubrication sector is shifting from high-consumption, low-efficiency operation to green and intelligent manufacturing.

Upcoming Exhibitions

No new exhibitions are scheduled between June 15 and August 15. The Shanghai International Lubricants Exhibition closed on June 11.