Lubricants Market Morning Report 20260515

Global Market Brief (Formal English for Petrochemical Official Website)

I. Global Market Trends

WTI hovers at $100.69/bbl, Brent at $105.92/bbl amid high-level fluctuations

At close on May 14, WTI crude settled at $100.69 per barrel (-0.31%), while Brent crude closed at $105.92 per barrel (+0.19%). Markets remain concerned over supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, and institutional profit-taking activities emerged. Nevertheless, oil prices are set to stay firm at high levels in the short term.

Domestic fuel price cut expected after three consecutive hikes; May 21 adjustment may be suspended

Halfway through the current pricing cycle, the crude price change rate stands at -1.80%, projecting a RMB 100 per metric ton reduction for gasoline and diesel (roughly RMB 0.08 per liter). The forecasted slump of RMB 260 per ton at the cycle’s opening has narrowed by over 50%, and the pricing window on May 21 may see no price adjustment.

International crude slips on May 13: WTI down 1.14%, Brent down 1.99%

On May 13, the June WTI contract fell $1.16 to $101.02 per barrel, and the July Brent contract lost $2.14 to $105.63 per barrel. Oil prices retreated temporarily amid profit-taking and easing geopolitical tensions.

Saudi Aramco warns: Hormuz deadlock may delay full global oil supply recovery until 2027

Saudi Aramco CEO Nasser warned that if blockades on the Strait of Hormuz persist past mid-June, global oil supply chains may not fully recover until 2027. JPMorgan noted the supply shock is spreading from crude oil to refined product markets.

India renews U.S. waiver extension request for Russian crude ahead of May 16 deadline

U.S. sanctions exemptions for Russian crude are set to expire on May 16, and India has formally requested an extension. Kpler data shows India’s Russian crude imports hit a record 2.3 million barrels per day in May; shipments could plunge to 1.9 million bpd without a waiver renewal. India faces dual pressure compounded by the Iran conflict.

II. Lubricant Industry News

Base oil prices surge over RMB 1,900/ton in one month; over ten lubricant brands roll out price hikes

Sharp cuts to global base oil output triggered by the Middle East conflict pushed domestic base oil prices up by more than RMB 1,900 per metric ton within a month, prompting price adjustments from over ten lubricant manufacturers. Key facilities including Bahrain’s Sitra Refinery and Pearl GTL Plant were attacked and shut down, passing supply chain pressure downstream.

May 13 base oil quotations: 100# at RMB 8,080/ton, 150BS at RMB 13,650/ton

Per SCI99 data released May 13, qualified Grade 100# base oil was quoted at RMB 8,080 per metric ton in Shandong, while imported Thai 150BS base oil stood at RMB 13,650 per ton. Sustained high base oil prices keep squeezing profit margins for lubricant producers.

Shell, BP and TotalEnergies post sharp Q1 profit growth; oil price rally benefits major energy giants

Driven by Middle East conflict-fueled crude price surges, Europe’s three leading energy majors — Shell, BP and TotalEnergies — recorded substantial Q1 profit increases. Supply chain shocks have transmitted from crude to end-user refined products, exacerbating cost burdens across the lubricant sector.

III. South American Market

Brazil’s crude export revenue jumps 70.4% YoY; March daily output hits record 4.247 million bpd

Brazil’s daily crude production reached an all-time high of 4.247 million barrels in March, with crude export revenue totaling USD 4.8 billion (up 70.4% year-on-year). Amid Middle Eastern supply outages, Latin American crude exports have gained striking competitiveness, positioning Brazil as a critical alternative global supplier.

IV. African Market

IMF downgrades Sub-Saharan Africa growth outlook; Middle East war hits oil importers

The IMF’s latest report cut the 2026 GDP growth forecast for Sub-Saharan Africa to 4.3%. Oil-importing nations face widening trade deficits, while oil exporters reap higher export revenues, creating an increasingly divergent regional economic landscape.

V. Russian Market

IEA: Russia’s April crude exports rebound to 4.9 million bpd, still below pre-conflict levels

IEA monthly data records Russia’s April crude output at 8.8 million bpd (460,000 bpd lower YoY), yet monthly exports rose 250,000 bpd to 4.9 million bpd to fill Middle Eastern supply gaps. Total petroleum exports hit 7.03 million bpd, short of the pre-conflict mark of 7.7 million bpd.

Russia’s April oil export revenue hits USD 19.18 billion, up USD 6.28 billion YoY

Per IEA statistics, Russia earned USD 19.18 billion from oil exports in April, a month-on-month rise of USD 180 million and a year-on-year jump of USD 6.28 billion. Despite shrinking production and export volumes, sky-high oil prices drove revenue expansion.

VI. South Asian Market

India bears brunt of Hormuz blockage; Modi calls for nationwide fuel conservation

Heavily reliant on crude imports, India suffers severe fallout from the Strait of Hormuz closure. PM Modi urged citizens to cut private car usage, adopt carpooling, suspend gold purchases and non-essential travel. India concurrently confronts capital outflows, rupee depreciation and broad-based inflation, exposing its weak economic risk resistance.

Indonesia retracts tentative Malacca toll proposal after regional uproar; India advances USD 9.9 billion Great Nicobar Island development to hedge risks

Indonesia’s finance minister floated a potential shipping toll for the Malacca Strait before quickly withdrawing the proposal, which stirred widespread regional concern. Meanwhile, India pushes forward a USD 9.9 billion development project on Great Nicobar Island, including an international transshipment terminal to build an alternative logistics hub and mitigate Malacca transit risks. Both China and the U.S. maintain a tacit consensus to safeguard open navigation in the strait.

VII. Malaysian Market (Marine Lubricants Focus)

Malaysia to release petroleum supply stability contingency plan amid Hormuz crisis

Against the backdrop of Iran tensions and suspended Hormuz shipping, Malaysia’s Prime Minister will soon unveil a petroleum supply guarantee plan to secure sufficient domestic reserves. April fuel subsidy expenses are projected to reach 7 billion ringgit (approximately USD 1.8 billion), nearly ten times pre-conflict levels.

Vietnam’s refined product imports surge; South Korea and Malaysia gain larger supply shares

Disrupted Middle Eastern supplies drove a sharp rise in Vietnam’s refined oil imports, with South Korea and Malaysia emerging as primary alternative suppliers. Refinery utilization rates across Southeast Asia have climbed, yet long-term operations remain constrained by feedstock shortages and shipping capacity bottlenecks.

VIII. Lubricant Popular Science for Customers

Q&A: Why are synthetic oils more expensive than mineral oils, and are they worth the premium?

Synthetic oils adopt chemically synthesized base stocks such as PAO with uniform molecular structures, delivering far superior high-temperature oxidation resistance and low-temperature fluidity compared to mineral oils.

Core difference: Synthetic oils support drain intervals of 10,000–15,000 km, versus only 5,000–7,000 km for mineral oils. Synthetic oils deliver long-term cost savings through fewer oil changes, reduced vehicle maintenance and less downtime, with distinct advantages for heavy-duty equipment.

[Customer-Friendly Popular Science]

Quick Reference: API Group I-V Base Oil Classification

API categorizes base oils into five groups:

• Group I: Solvent refined, sulfur >0.03%, VI <80, lowest cost

• Group II: Hydrocracked, sulfur <0.03%, VI 80–120

• Group III: Severe hydroisomerization, VI >120, performance close to full synthetics

• Group IV: PAO (Polyalphaolefin), genuine fully synthetic base stock

• Group V: Specialty stocks including esters, silicones, etc.

Group III and above are recommended for premium passenger vehicles and industrial equipment.

[Sales & Technical Training Material]

IX. Technical Highlights (Synthetic & Specialty Lubricants)

PAO Polyalphaolefin: Core Synthetic Base Oil Technology Breakdown

PAO (Polyalphaolefin), the Group IV synthetic base oil manufactured via ethylene polymerization and catalysis, is the most widely used synthetic feedstock globally.

Core strengths:

1. Far superior thermal oxidation stability vs mineral oils

2. Pour point as low as -54℃ for outstanding cold start performance

3. Low volatility cutting fuel consumption by roughly 4.2%

4. Excellent compatibility with additives and sealing materials

PAO offers the best cost-performance among all synthetic base oils, extensively applied in premium automotive and industrial lubricants.

Food-Grade PAO Synthetic Lubricants: Specialty Applications Complying with FDA Standards

Food-grade PAO synthetic lubricants (e.g. CP-4617-5-F) comply with FDA 21 CFR 178.3570 and hold NSF H1 registration, approved for incidental food contact in food processing machinery.

Features:

1. Reliable lubrication across wide high-low temperature ranges

2. Extremely low volatility

3. Good miscibility with mineral oils

4. Superior anti-wear and extreme pressure performance

Recommended for high-load components such as gears, bearings and powder metallurgy equipment. Long service intervals reduce oil change frequency and production downtime costs.