Lubricants Market Morning Report 20260511

Global Market Brief (Formal English for Petrochemical Official Website)

I. Global Market Trends

Crude oil to surge RMB 370/MT tonight; Brent once spikes above $118/bbl

Domestic refined oil prices will be raised by RMB 370 per metric ton at 24:00 on May 8, with No.92 gasoline up RMB 0.29 per liter. OPEC+ crude output dropped sharply month-on-month. The World Bank listed this as the primary factor driving up global commodity prices in 2026, while Brent crude once surged above $118 per barrel.

Saudi Aramco Q1 net profit jumps 25.5% to USD 32 billion

Saudi Aramco’s net profit in Q1 2026 rose 25.5% year-on-year to 120.13 billion Saudi riyals (approximately USD 32.04 billion). The gain was mainly fueled by price hikes triggered by the Iran conflict, with higher prices and sales volumes for crude oil, refined petroleum products and petrochemicals.

OPEC crude output hits 36-year low last month

Sustained military conflict in Iran curbed oil exports from Gulf nations, pushing OPEC’s crude production to a 36-year trough last month. Total April output fell by 420,000 barrels per day to 20.55 million barrels per day, the lowest level since 1990, following a steep cut of 8.6 million barrels per day in March.

Zero vessel transits in the Strait of Hormuz; GPS interference verified

Lloyd’s List confirmed no merchant vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz on May 5, a finding further validated by MarineTraffic data showing zero ship movements in the waterway. Multiple vessels transmitted false positioning signals, meaning actual shipping activity may be even lower than recorded data indicates.

Goldman Sachs survey: Investors expect strait disruptions to persist into H2

A Goldman Sachs survey shows most investors anticipate shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz will continue beyond late June. 43% of respondents expect normal navigation to resume only after July, while one-third forecast Brent crude will trade between $80 and $90 per barrel by year-end.

Crude price outlook downgraded; adjustment rate hits -4.59%

Crude oil prices retreated again, pushing the crude price adjustment rate to -4.59%. A price cut of RMB 250 per metric ton is projected, equivalent to a RMB 0.19–0.23 per liter reduction for gasoline and diesel. The next pricing adjustment window opens on May 21.

II. Lubricant Industry News

Industry-wide lubricant price hikes take effect, multiple brands raise prices by over 10%

Gasoline prices crossed the RMB 9 per liter threshold on May 8, accompanied by a second round of systematic industry-wide price increases for lubricants. Major brands have fully implemented price hikes exceeding 10%, with distributors’ order systems updated to reflect new ex-factory rates.

Domestic lubricant prices edge down, latest quotation at RMB 9,750/MT

As of May 6, domestic lubricants were quoted at RMB 9,750 per metric ton, down RMB 33.33 or 0.34% from the previous trading day. The seven-day average price stands at RMB 9,794.44 per metric ton amid generally weak market sentiment.

III. South American Market

Argentina’s inflation rebounds sharply, heavily affected by fuel costs

Argentina’s March inflation rate accelerated to 3.4%, hitting a one-year high. Authorities attributed the inflation surge to external shocks stemming from the Middle East conflict and the resulting spike in fuel prices.

IV. African Market

ExxonMobil commits USD 24 billion to deepwater oil & gas projects in Nigeria

Nigeria’s deepwater petroleum sector drew major global oil majors’ attention in April 2026. ExxonMobil notified regulators of development plans for projects including Owowo and Bosi, with total estimated investment surpassing USD 24 billion.

Dangote Refinery plans shift to high-margin chemical production

Dangote Group is accelerating a strategic transformation for its refinery, shifting focus from conventional fuel manufacturing to high-profit chemical products. It plans to boost crude processing capacity from 650,000 barrels per day to 1.4 million barrels per day, building the world’s largest single-site refinery complex.

V. Russian Market

Russia supplies crude oil to Japan for the first time since 2022; OPEC+ announces output increase

For the first time since the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict, Russia has delivered crude oil to Japan. Separately, OPEC+ announced a production boost, introducing new shifts to global supply balances.

VI. South Asian Market

Pakistan releases footage of Chinese submarine delivery

A Ministry of Defense spokesperson confirmed on May 9 that the first Type-039A conventional submarine built by China for Pakistan was delivered in Sanya, with Pakistan releasing on-site footage of the handover ceremony.

VII. Malaysian Market (Marine Lubricants Focus)

Malaysian PM to unveil petroleum supply stability guarantee plan

Malaysian authorities disclosed fuel subsidy expenditures for April are projected to reach 7 billion ringgit, roughly ten times pre-conflict levels. Current national fuel reserves will only last until June, with Petronas in the final phase of negotiations to secure new suppliers.

Singapore bunker fuel prices soar, inventories drop to 10-week low

The Middle East conflict disrupted global shipping chokepoints, sending Singapore marine fuel prices surging and drawing stockpiles down to a 10-week trough. Though prices have eased slightly, they remain over 50% higher than one year ago. Shipping firms are redirecting bunker fuel supplies from other regions to Asia.

VIII. Technical Highlights

Online Oil Condition Monitor: Real-time Monitoring & Predictive Maintenance

Technical features: Real-time detection of oil cleanliness, water content, viscosity, temperature and other indicators; predictive modeling to calculate remaining oil service life and assess equipment failure risks; integrated alarm system that automatically triggers maintenance reminders.

Applicable sectors: Metallurgy, automobile manufacturing, wind power, construction machinery and other industries.

Working Principle of Petroleum Product Colorimeter

Technical features: Adopts optical color comparison methodology; samples are matched against standardized color scales under controlled uniform lighting; fully complies with industry standard SH/T 0168 and precisely aligns with the 16 color gradations specified in GB/T 6540; eliminates interference from natural light fluctuations to guarantee testing precision.