Lubricants Market Morning Report 20260506

I. Global Market Updates

Goldman Sachs: Global Oil Inventories Fall to 8-Year Lows

Analysts at Goldman Sachs stated that global oil inventories are declining rapidly and have neared the lowest level in eight years. Current total global inventories cover roughly 101 days of projected demand, compared with a normal range of 120–125 days. Disrupted shipping caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz may push inventories further down to cover only 98 days of demand by the end of May.

Chevron CEO Warns of Material Crude Oil Shortage

Chevron’s Chief Executive Officer warned that tangible signs of crude oil shortages have emerged in the market, with Asian economic growth set to bear the brunt. Demand will need to adjust to constrained supply, and certain economies may face slower growth. Asia relies most heavily on oil and gas supplies from the Middle East; Japan sources 95% of its imported oil from the region.

API Confirms Sharp Drawdown in U.S. Crude Inventories

Data released by the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed U.S. crude inventories dropped by 8.1 million barrels in the week ending May 1, far exceeding the projected draw of 2.8 million barrels. Gasoline inventories fell by 6.1 million barrels, and distillate stocks decreased by 4.6 million barrels. Strategic Petroleum Reserves slipped to 392.7 million barrels, hitting the lowest level since November 2024.

II. South American Market

Venezuela’s Oil Exports Hit 7-Year High

Venezuela’s oil exports rose to 1.23 million barrels per day in April, marking the highest volume since 2018, with accelerated shipments to the U.S., India and Europe. Exports climbed 14% month-on-month from March, with 66 tankers departing Venezuelan ports that month. Following sanctions relief from Washington after the interim government took office, firms including Chevron have resumed imports of Venezuelan crude oil.

III. African Market

UAE’s OPEC Exit Poses Risks to African Crude Exports

The United Arab Emirates’ decision to withdraw from OPEC may drastically reshape Africa’s crude export landscape. As a major oil producer, the UAE’s departure could shift the power balance within OPEC and weaken the bargaining power of African oil-producing nations. Analysts fear African crude will become less competitive in European and Asian markets as a result.

IV. Russian Market

Ukrainian Drone Attacks Hit Refinery Near St. Petersburg

Kirishi Refinery, one of Russia’s largest refineries with a capacity of 400,000 barrels per day, caught fire following a drone strike. The facility had already suspended operations since late March after a prior attack. Ukraine has ramped up drone assaults targeting Russian oil infrastructure recently, undermining Russia’s capacity to export refined oil products.

V. South Asian Market

India Condemns Iranian Attack on Port of Fujairah

India’s Ministry of External Affairs called for an end to hostilities in the Middle East and condemned Iran’s attack on the Port of Fujairah, which injured three Indian nationals. India deemed the attack unacceptable, urged all parties to resolve disputes through dialogue, and upheld the principle of free navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. The incident pushed Brent crude prices above $114 per barrel.

VI. Malaysian Market (Marine Lubricants)

Rising Demand for Marine Lubricants at Malaysian Ports

Bunkering volumes at Port Klang and Johor Port have maintained steady growth, up 12% year-on-year in Q1 2026. Demand is primarily driven by container vessels and bulk carriers, with robust consumption of marine cylinder oils and system oils. The Malaysian government has rolled out new bunkering guidelines to streamline customs clearance procedures.

Narrowing Marine Fuel Price Gap Between Singapore and Malaysia

Thanks to expanded refining capacity in Malaysia, the price spread of marine fuel between Singapore and Malaysia has narrowed to $15–20 per metric ton. More shipowners opt to bunker at Port Klang to cut operational costs. Malaysia’s share of the marine lubricant market is expected to expand further in the second half of the year.

VII. Industry Conferences & Exhibitions (Next Two Months)

2026 Reliable Plant Conference & Exhibition

June 15–18, 2026 | Lake Tahoe, Reno, USA

The event covers lubrication, reliability maintenance, oil analysis and other themes, serving as a communication platform for industrial maintenance professionals.

2026 Asia Lubricants Summit

June 25–26, 2026 | Shanghai, China

Focused on the Asia-Pacific lubricant market, the summit expects attendance from over 500 professional buyers, covering automotive oils, industrial oils, marine lubricants and related sectors.

2026 South America Lubricants Forum

July 8–9, 2026 | São Paulo, Brazil

The inaugural summit for South America’s lubricant industry, highlighting bio-based lubricants and lubrication solutions for renewable energy applications.